Expected value per lead
Also called E[V].
A segment's close rate multiplied by its average won deal size. A 12% close rate on deals averaging $9,000 is an expected value of $1,080 per lead.
Why it matters
It is the honest unit for a lead that has not closed. Sending the full deal size instead assumes every lead wins, which overstates pipeline and biases bidding toward whoever fills in the biggest number on a form.
What goes wrong
The word expected is doing real work. This is not the CRM's pipeline figure, which sums open deals at sticker price and quietly assumes they all land. Each lead here is already discounted by how often its kind actually closes, so the number is smaller than the CRM says and much likelier to arrive.
What this product does about it
Close rate times the average won amount, with deals above the cap counted at the cap, so the fit prices deals exactly as the feed is willing to emit them.
Next to this
- CohortA group of leads sharing a trait, priced together because there are enough of them to measure something.
- Value capA ceiling on the value sent for any one conversion, so a single enormous deal cannot dominate what the bid strategy learns.
- Day-0 valueThe value sent at the moment the lead is created, estimated from what similar leads have historically been worth rather than from what this one eventually does.
- Predicted lifetime valueNewAn estimate of the total revenue a customer will produce over the whole relationship, rather than on the first deal, used as the value sent back to a platform.
The rest of this step
Measure this on your own data
The diagnostic reads a CRM export in your browser and reports your volume, your match rate and the spread between your leads against the thresholds in this glossary. Nothing is uploaded and no account is needed.